Forecasting the Future: How Professional Investors Form Long‑Term Expectations
What drives long‑term investment decisions in professional markets? Gain research‑based insights into Capital Market Assumptions and their role in real‑world investment decisions.
About the event
Event description
Long‑term investment decisions are built on expectations about the future. At the heart of these expectations lie Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) — the return forecasts that guide strategic asset allocation, portfolio construction, and risk management across the investment industry. Yet despite their central role, how these assumptions are formed and used in practice remains opaque to many.
At this event, CBS Assistant Professor Markus Ibert presents new research‑based insights into how professional investors develop, revise, and apply long‑term return expectations. Drawing on extensive data from asset managers, investment consultants, pension funds, wealth advisors, and professional forecasters, the event offers a rare look at the institutional investment process.
The event addresses three core questions:
- How are long‑term return expectations formed?
Understanding the behavioural and institutional factors that influence how professionals think about the future. - Why do expectations differ — and change — across institutions and market cycles?
Exploring how forecasts evolve over time, across asset classes, and within different organisational settings. - How do CMAs translate into real portfolio decisions?
Examining the link between stated expectations and actual asset allocation choices.
Who is this for?
This event is particularly relevant for investment professionals, analysts, portfolio managers, advisors, and decision‑makers working with long‑term capital allocation, as well as professionals with an interest in finance, investing, and strategic decision‑making. Participants will gain new perspectives on how long‑term investment strategies are shaped in practice — and what this means for navigating an increasingly uncertain market environment.
Programme
TBA
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Meet the speakers
Markus Ibert
Assistant Professor, CBS
Markus Ibert is currently an Assistant Professor in the finance department at Copenhagen Business School.
Before joining CBS, Markus was a Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. He obtained a Ph.D. in Finance from the Stockholm School of Economics.
His research focuses on issues in asset pricing and asset management and has been published in leading academic journals.
Henrik Olejasz Larsen
Chief Investment Officer, Sampension
Henrik Olejasz Larsen is Chief Investment Officer with the Danish pension fund Sampension.
Before joining Sampension in 2007 Henrik Olejasz Larsen was Chief Risk Officer with the Danish pension fund ATP. From 2001 to 2005 he headed Structured Finance within Carnegie Bank, Denmark. From 1997 to 2001 he was head of Treasury with Danske Bank, from 1996 to 1997 CEO of the Danish Pension Fund for Lawyers and Economists, and before that for many years with the mortgage bank BRFkredit, from 1994 as head of Treasury and Funding.
Henrik Olejasz Larsen holds a MA (econ) from the University of Copenhagen and after a brief academic career he has since 1987 been external lecturer in finance at the University of Copenhagen.
Photography
Please note that photographs/videos will be taken/recorded during the event. These will be used by CBS as a record of the event, for digital marketing and publicity purposes on our websites/social media as well as for marketing and publicity purposes in printed formats. Photographs/videos will be stored until it is no longer necessary in order to meet these purposes. Please contact executiveeducation@cbs.dk if you have any concerns or you wish to have a photograph/video of you deleted.