Foreca­sting the Fu­tu­re: How Pro­fes­sio­nal In­ve­stors Form Long‑Term Expecta­tions

Event description

Long‑term investment decisions are built on expectations about the future. At the heart of these expectations lie Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) — the return forecasts that guide strategic asset allocation, portfolio construction, and risk management across the investment industry. Yet despite their central role, how these assumptions are formed and used in practice remains opaque to many.

At this event, CBS Assistant Professor Markus Ibert presents new research‑based insights into how professional investors develop, revise, and apply long‑term return expectations. Drawing on extensive data from asset managers, investment consultants, pension funds, wealth advisors, and professional forecasters, the event offers a rare look at the institutional investment process.

The event addresses three core questions:

• How are long‑term return expectations formed?
  Understanding the behavioural and institutional factors that influence how professionals think about the future.
• Why do expectations differ — and change — across institutions and market cycles?
  Exploring how forecasts evolve over time, across asset classes, and within different organisational settings.
• How do CMAs translate into real portfolio decisions?
  Examining the link between stated expectations and actual asset allocation choices.

Who is this for?
This event is particularly relevant for investment professionals, analysts, portfolio managers, advisors, and decision‑makers working with long‑term capital allocation, as well as professionals with an interest in finance, investing, and strategic decision‑making. Participants will gain new perspectives on how long‑term investment strategies are shaped in practice — and what this means for navigating an increasingly uncertain market environment.

Programme

TBA