El­ev­en weeks that shif­ted the norms

When Denmark in August 2022 expanded the earmarked parental leave for fathers from two to eleven weeks, the response was a mix of applause and concern. Some saw it as a long-awaited step towards equality. Others saw it as an unnecessary intervention in the family’s freedom of choice.

A comprehensive working paper has now measured the effects of the reform, and the study shows that fathers who had a child after the reform came into force took significantly more parental leave, while mothers took less. 

At the same time, the income gap between fathers and mothers narrowed during the child’s first year and afterwards, when both parents had returned to work.

“These results are striking because gender inequality in the labour market has remained almost unchanged for many years. This has happened even though we have spoken about equality for decades and seen ourselves as a progressive society.”

These are the words of Philip Rosenbaum, Associate Professor at the Department of Economics at Copenhagen Business School and one of the researchers behind the study.

“Inequality becomes particularly visible when we have children. This is where gender roles often become more traditional, and women begin to fall behind. Our study shows that this can change, but it does not happen on its own.”

The reform as a natural experiment

The study is conducted by researchers affiliated with Princeton University, London School of Economics and Political Science, Copenhagen Business School and the University of Copenhagen. It is the first major study to systematically measure the effects of the Danish earmarked parental leave reform.

The researchers tracked all Danish parents who had a child around 1 August 2022, when the new rules came into effect. By comparing families whose children were born just before and just after the cut-off date, they can measure the reform’s impact.

The reform thus functions as what economists call a natural experiment.

“In the social sciences, we cannot run laboratory experiments and randomly assign some families one set of parental leave rules and others a different set. But sometimes reality creates a situation that resembles an experiment,” explains Philip Rosenbaum.

That is exactly what happened here, and this enables the researchers to compare two groups of families that resemble each other on almost every point except for the parental leave rules. If differences arise between the groups, these can with high certainty be attributed to the reform.

At the same time, Danish register data makes it possible to follow parents in great detail: month by month, the researchers can see how much they work, how much they earn and how long they take parental leave.

More leave for fathers and higher earnings for mothers

With the solid data foundation in place, the researchers could begin to look at the key question: What did the reform actually change in practice?

First and foremost, the reform changed how parental leave was divided. Fathers took on average 3.4 weeks more leave, while mothers took just over five weeks less.

This meant that the fathers’ share of parental leave rose from approximately 12.5 percent to around 20 percent,

while the income gap between mothers and fathers narrowed significantly during the child’s first year. It decreased by 33 percentage points. The explanation is simple: fathers worked less because they took more parental leave, and mothers worked more.

“That is a major change in an area that has hardly shifted in 20 years,” says Philip Rosenbaum.

But the researchers also wanted to know whether the effect extended beyond the parental leave period

and therefore examined the child’s second year, after both parents had returned to work. Here the pay gap fell by 2.8 percentage points compared with families who had a child before the reform.

“It is almost self-evident that the pay gap becomes significantly smaller during the child’s first year. When fathers take more leave and mothers return to work earlier, it automatically affects income. This is what we call a mechanical effect,” explains Philip Rosenbaum.

“The interesting part is what happens in the child’s second year, when both parents are back at work. This suggests that the reform not only changed the distribution of leave but also has more lasting effects on how responsibility and work are shared in the family.”

Is 2.8 percentage points a significant shift?

“Yes, I think so. The reform is not huge. Fathers still take only around 20 percent of the total leave, but historically it has been difficult to reduce the pay gap; it has appeared stuck. That it has shifted by 2-3 percentage points shows that it is actually possible if there is political will,” says Philip Rosenbaum.

Fewer believe that children suffer if mum works

But the study is not only about weeks of leave and wage differences.

The researchers combined register data with a large survey among around 40,000 parents of newborn children. The same parents were asked when the child was four months old and again at eighteen months.

This means the researchers can see not only what the parents did but also what they thought.

The questions addressed everyday life and attitudes: Who picks up and drops off the child? Who stays home on sick days?  What are the parents’ views on gender roles and division of responsibility?

“This is where it gets really interesting,” says Philip Rosenbaum.

“It is not only about fathers taking more weeks of parental leave at home, the question is whether it changes anything within the family in terms of role distribution and the way responsibility is shared, and whether it is also visible in the economy. And we can actually see that it is,” he says.

The results indicate that the reform also shifted the attitudes of fathers and mothers.

“We can see that their attitudes have changed. Fewer of the parents who had a child after the reform believe that small children suffer if the mother works full time. More and more view fathers as just as capable caregivers as mothers., and support for earmarked parental leave is clearly higher among those who are covered by the rules,” says Philip Rosenbaum.

Not many people miss the smoking room – will the same happen with mothers’ leave?

But the story is not unambiguous. The reform also carries a cost, the study shows. 

In the survey, mothers and fathers were asked whether the distribution of leave suited their family. Before the reform, around 90 percent said they were satisfied.  After the reform, satisfaction dropped markedly. 

Now only approximately 50 percent of mothers and 65 percent of fathers are satisfied with the division. Among those who are dissatisfied, the explanation is usually the same: they would have preferred that the mother had more leave.

Philip Rosenbaum calls this ‘the price of paternalism’:

“We generally dislike when the state interferes in family life.  In our survey, some describe the reform as a step towards a ‘Marxist society’. Others say they fundamentally support equality and consider themselves feminists but that the reform simply does not suit their family.”

According to Philip Rosenbaum, it is not unusual that interventions in everyday life meet resistance at first.

“We have seen this before, for example when smoking was banned in pubs. There was strong resistance at the beginning. Today very few would like to go back. The same may well happen here.”

The researchers’ cohort zero

Whether satisfaction with the new parental leave arrangement will return over time is still unknown, but one thing is clear, says Philip Rosenbaum: “Politics can indeed shift norms and expectations.

We can change equality if we want to, and I think that is in itself a major result,” he says.

The researchers call the study årgang 0 (cohort zero). It is the first group of children born into the new arrangement. And because the researchers have followed the families from the child’s earliest months, they have a unique opportunity to follow them further.

“The next step is to see what happens five years later,” says Philip Rosenbaum. 

“What happens when the children start school? Do they perform differently, for example in mathematics, if they have spent more time with their father? And how do their educational choices and working lives unfold? 

There are also other questions worth examining, the researcher points out: 

“For example, does the reform affect divorce rates? Do families have more or fewer children? A study from Spain has shown that earmarked parental leave leads to lower birth rates. There are endless questions to answer,” says Philip Rosenbaum.