Do Natural Disasters Lead to More Migration? Evidence from Indonesia

Abstract

Using Indonesian panel datasets, I examine how earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and floods affect household migration. The study separately analyzes the impact of these natural disasters on the tendency of entire households to migrate, as well as the tendency for part of the household to split off and migrate. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I find that all three types of disasters significantly reduce migration rates. Nevertheless, the channels of impact are quite different. Earthquakes reduce household size, earnings and non-business assets, each of which tends to reduce migration rates. Volcanic eruptions on the other hand raise the value of farmland, which, in turn, reduces migration. Floods have no significant impacts on household assets or earnings, and their effect remains unexplained.

Keywords: Indonesia, natural disasters, migration

JEL codes: O15, Q54