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HAP_VPDM - The Psychology of Decision Making* "CLOSED FOR FURTHER ENROLMENT"

Faculty
Laurel Austin
Course Coordinator
Søren Henning Jensen
Prerequisite/progression of the course
Open to all undergraduates
Course content, structure and teaching
This course will provide students with a foundation in the area of judgment and decision making. The study of judgment and decision making is an inter-disciplinary field, drawing on insights from cognitive and social psychology, economics and statistics. Students will learn and apply a variety of theories related to individual decision making, especially those related to cognitive limitations that commonly affect decision making ability. Students will learn ways to recognize limitations and make decision processes more effective. Students will apply three types of theories: normative, meaning theories about how decisions ought to be made; descriptive, meaning theories that describe how people actually make decisions; and prescriptive, meaning theories about how to help people make better decisions.
The course will cover some basic probability and statistics; however, this will not require any particular mathematics background. Students will study descriptive theories of human inference and understanding of probabilistic information. We will examine widely observed limitations in human inference and learn how to use decision models to help overcome them. We will consider the implications for both individuals and public policy decision makers.
This class will be more enjoyable and a better learning experience for everyone if everyone is involved and contributing on a regular basis. The course will be a mixture of some lectures, and a good deal of class discussion. Students are expected to come to class prepared, having read the materials assigned for the day prior to the start of class. Students are welcome to bring articles, newspaper articles, web-pages, etc., that are relevant to topics discussed during the semester.
The course's development of personal competences
Students will develop their ability to think logically and analytically about a decision situation. They will be able to use simple probability information in analysing a decision situation, and will be able to apply that to their own decision making.
Learning Objectives
At the end of the course, the student must be able to:
  • Provide structure to decision situations, based on normative decision theories;
  • Use that structure to analyze decision situations and discuss what conclusions can, and cannot, be concluded reliably;
  • Recognize common cognitive limitations and biases that affect human inference and decision making, as well as ways to overcome, limit, or at least acknowledge them;
  • Know how to interpret and use basic probabilistic information when making decisions that involve uncertainty.
Type of examination, exam aids and assessment
Closed book written exam; calculators are allowed.
Recommended literature
Plous, S., The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, New York: McGraw Hill
Baron, J. 2008. Thinking and Deciding, Fourth Edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
Chapman G., and Sonnenberg, (2003). Decision Making in Health Care: Theory, Psychology and Applications, Ch 2 p 20-27, Cambridge University Press, ISBN Number: 9780521541244
Combs, B., and Slovic, P. (1979). Newspaper coverage of causes of death. Journalism Quarterly, 56, 837-843, 849.
Dawes, R. (1988). Appendix A1 in Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, 275-291. Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich
Dawes, R. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, July, 571-582.
Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem) to mean. International journal of forecasting, 10, 387-403.
Fischhoff, B., and Bruine de Bruin, W. (1999). Fifty-Fifty = 50%? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, pp 149-163
Fischhoff, B., and Beyth-Marom, R. (1983). Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review, 90, 239-247.
Gigerenzer, G., and Edwards, A. (2003). Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight. British Medical Journal, 27 Sept., 741-744
Gilovich,, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 17, 295-314.
Loong, T. (2003). Understanding sensitivity and specificity with the right side of the brain. British Medical Journal, 27 Sept., 716-719
Patterson, K., (2002, May 5). What doctors don’t know (almost everything). New York Times Magazine
Pope, T. (2008). Panel urges end to prostate screening at age 75. New York Times, 5 August.
Simon, H. (1983). Alternative visions of rationality. In H. A. Simon, Reason in Human Affairs, p. 7-35. Stanford CA: Stanford University Press
Tversky A., and Kahneman, D (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76:2, 105-110.
Tversky A., and Kahneman, D (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453-458.

Last updated by The Electives Office 03/07/2009