Faculty
Associate Professor Maja Horst and Assistant Research Professor Cynthia Selin, Arizona State University

Course Coordinator
Associate Professor Maja Horst

The course is introductory and participants are not expected to have specific training in foresight methodologies. Participants will be asked to submit a short description of their phd.project in advance. It is a precondition for receiving the course diploma that the PhD student attends the whole course.

Foresight methodologies are well-documented analytical tools for organizational strategy making under conditions of uncertainty. Yet however well-used these methodologies are, it is not easy to always predict what works, why and under what conditions. There is a range of methodologies and each maintains different purposes, goals, epistemologies, and contexts of use. The objective of this course is to familiarize participants with different methodologies and their inherent understandings of uncertainty and planning as well as their effect on organizational behavior and strategy.

Taking a starting point in the sociology of future and the general observation of uncertainty in organizations and organizing, the course will take a deeper look at foresight practices. It will explore the various methods with an eye towards epistemological concerns, the political economy of futuring and common snares. In doing so, students will investigate this mode of thinking strategically in a reflexive fashion.

The learning objectives of the course are to provide participants with an introductory understanding of the purpose and rationales of foresight methods as well as introduce them to the various steps in the scenario planning process by hands-on experience. Additionally, the course will enable the students to reflect on the risks and rewards of the methodologies and their contexts of use. As examples for discussion the participants will be introduced to specific instances of foresight in different organizational environments

Lecture plan

Time/period	Faculty	Title
Wednesday, 2 June 2009
9.00-12.00	Maja Horst and Cynthia Selin	Turbulence and the crisis of prediction,Rational and purposes for foresight,Sociology of the future, Case histories of different applications of scenarios
12.00-13.00		Lunch
13.00-17.00	Maja Horst and Cynthia Selin	Immersive Exercise/Interactive rapid prototyping of scenarios: What is the future of (the) organization?, Strategic implications of scenarios, Production and consumption of foresight

The course will be a mixture of lectures, discussions and interactive exercises

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Adam, B. 2005a. “Futures in the Making: Contemporary Practices and Sociological Challenges.” Paper presented at the ASA conference, Philadelphia, PA. (1-17). Last accessed March 24, 2006 from http://www.cf.ac.uk/socsi/futures/conf_ba_asa230905.pdf

Garb, Y., Pulver, S., 7 VanDeveer. (2008). Scenarios in society, society in scenarios:

toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling. Environmental Research Letters, 3.

Kleiner, A. (2003). “The Man Who Saw the Future.” Strategy & Business, Spring.

Brown, N., & Michael, M. (2003). A Sociology of Expectations: Retrospecting Prospects

and Prospecting Retrospects. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 15(1): 3-18.

Chia, R. (2004). Invention and Navigation as Contrasting Metaphors of the Pathways to the Future. In Tsoukas, H., & Shepard, J. (eds). Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy. Malden, MA: Ann Arbor.

Das, T. K. (1991). Time: The Hidden Dimension in Strategic Planning. Long Range Planning, 24(3): 49-57.

Ringland, G. (1998). Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.

(2002). Scenarios in Public Policy. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.

Van Asselt, M. (1999). Uncertainty in Decision-Support: From Problem to Challenge, International Centre for Integrated Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University, Working Paper I99-E006, 44 pp.